Year 2023 / Volume 115 / Number 5
Original
Predicting the future: introducing business analytics to endoscopy units

241-247

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2022.9094/2022

Rolando Pinho, Ricardo Veloso, Maria Manuela Estevinho, Tânia Rodrigues, Bernardo Almada Lobo, Mário Amorim-Lopes, Teresa Freitas,

Abstract
Background and aims: currently, most endoscopy software only provides limited statistics of past procedures, while none allows patterns to be extrapolated. To overcome this need, the authors applied business analytic models to predict future demand and the need for endoscopists in a tertiary hospital Endoscopy Unit. Methods: a query to the endoscopy database was performed to retrieve demand from 2015 to 2021. The graphical inspection allowed inferring of trends and seasonality, perceiving the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and selecting the best forecasting models. Considering COVID-19’s impact in the second quarter of 2020, data for esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) and colonoscopy was estimated using linear regression of historical data. The actual demand in the first two quarters of 2022 was used to validate the models. Results: during the study period, 53,886 procedures were requested. The best forecasting models were: a) simple seasonal exponential smoothing for EGD, colonoscopy and percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG); b) double exponential smoothing for capsule endoscopy and deep enteroscopy; and c) simple exponential smoothing for endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) and endoscopic ultrasound (EUS). The mean average percentage error ranged from 6.1 % (EGD) to 33.5 % (deep enteroscopy). Overall, 8,788 procedures were predicted for 2022. The actual demand in the first two quarters of 2022 was within the predicted range. Considering the usual time allocation for each technique, 3.2 full-time equivalent endoscopists (40 hours-dedication to endoscopy) will be required to perform all procedures in 2022. Conclusions: the incorporation of business analytics into the endoscopy software and clinical practice may enhance resource allocation, improving patient-focused decision-making and healthcare quality.
Share Button
New comment
Comments
No comments for this article
References
[1] Brown H, Wyatt S, Gale N, et al. Scoping the future: an evaluation of endoscopy capacity across the NHS in England. Cancer Research UK; 2015
[2] Catlow J, Beaton D, Beintaris I, et al. JAG/BSG national survey of UK endoscopy services: impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and early restoration of endoscopy services. Frontline Gastroenterol 2021; 12: 272–278
[3] Committee AS of P. Open-access endoscopy. Gastrointest Endosc 2015; 81: 1326–1329
[4] Zuccaro Jr. G, Provencher K. Does an open access system properly utilize endoscopic resources? Gastrointest Endosc 1997; 46: 15–20. doi:10.1016/S0016-5107(97)70203-7
[5] Manes G, Paspatis G, Aabakken L, et al. Endoscopic management of common bile duct stones: European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) guideline. Endoscopy 2019; 51: 472–491. doi:10.1055/a-0862-0346
[6] National Health Service (NHS) UK. NHS IMAS IST Endoscopy Outpatient Capacity and Demand Tool. https://www.england.nhs.uk/ourwork/demand-and-capacity/models/endoscopy-capacity-and-demand-tool/ 2017.
[7] Harper A, Mustafee N, Feeney M. A hybrid approach using forecasting and discrete-event simulation for endoscopy services. In: 2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC). 2017: 1583–1594
[8] Gralnek IM, Hassan C, Beilenhoff U, et al. ESGE and ESGENA Position Statement on gastrointestinal endoscopy and the COVID-19 pandemic. Endoscopy 2020; 52: 483–490. doi:10.1055/a-1155-6229
[9] Gupta S, Shahidi N, Gilroy N, et al. Proposal for the return to routine endoscopy during the COVID-19 pandemic. Gastrointest Endosc 2020; 92: 735–742. doi:10.1016/j.gie.2020.04.050
[10] Gralnek IM, Hassan C, Beilenhoff U, et al. ESGE and ESGENA Position Statement on gastrointestinal endoscopy and COVID-19: An update on guidance during the post-lockdown phase and selected results from a membership survey. Endoscopy 2020; 52: 891–898
[11] Gralnek IM, Hassan C, Ebigbo A, et al. ESGE and ESGENA Position Statement on gastrointestinal endoscopy and COVID-19: Updated guidance for the era of vaccines and viral variants. Endoscopy 2022; 54: 211–216. doi:10.1055/a-1700-4897
[12] Balzora S, Issaka RB, Anyane-Yeboa A, et al. Impact of COVID-19 on colorectal cancer disparities and the way forward. Gastrointest Endosc 2020; 92: 946–950. doi:10.1016/j.gie.2020.06.042
[13] Ribeiro Gomes AC, Pinho R, Silva JC, et al. Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Gastroenterology Department Activity: The Gastroenterologist’s Perspective Nationwide and the Real Impact in a Portuguese Center. GE Port J Gastroenterol 2021; 382: 1–9. doi:10.1159/000516962
[14] Muthusamy VR. Tips and pearls on running an endoscopy unit in a cost-efficient manner. Gastrointest Endosc 2020; 92: 1111–1114. doi:10.1016/j.gie.2020.06.011
[15] Leal C, Almeida N, Silva M, et al. Appropriateness of Endoscopic Procedures: A Prospective, Multicenter Study. GE - Port J Gastroenterol 2022; 29: 5–12. doi:10.1159/000515839
[16] Ho KMA, Banerjee A, Lawler M, et al. Predicting endoscopic activity recovery in England after COVID-19: a national analysis. Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol 2021; 6: 381–390. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-1253(21)00058-3
[17] Belle A, Barret M, Bernardini D, et al. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on gastrointestinal endoscopy activity in France. Endoscopy 2020; 52: 1111–1115. doi:10.1055/a-1201-9618
[18] ResearchAndMarkets.com. Global Capsule Endoscopy Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report By Product, By Application (OGIB, Small Intestine Tumor), By End Use (Hospitals, Ambulatory Surgery Centers), 2021 - 2028. 2021
[19] Pennazio M, Spada C, Eliakim R, et al. Small-bowel capsule endoscopy and device-assisted enteroscopy for diagnosis and treatment of small-bowel disorders: European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) Clinical Guideline. Endoscopy 2015; 47: 352–376. doi:10.1055/s-0034-1391855
[20] Nowak T. A global perspective on capsule endoscopy. Ann Transl Med 2017; 5: 422. doi:10.21037/atm.2017.10.20
[21] Pérez-Cuadrado-Robles E, Pinho R, Gonzalez B, et al. Small Bowel Enteroscopy - A Joint Clinical Guideline from the Spanish and Portuguese Small Bowel Study Groups. GE Port J Gastroenterol 2020; 27: 324–335. doi:10.1159/000507375
[22] Pinho R, Mascarenhas-Saraiva M, Mão-de-Ferro S, et al. Multicenter survey on the use of device-assisted enteroscopy in Portugal. United Eur Gastroenterol J 2016; 4: 264–274. doi:10.1177/2050640615604775
[23] Pinho R, Ponte A, Rodrigues A, et al. Long-term rebleeding risk following endoscopic therapy of small-bowel vascular lesions with device-assisted enteroscopy. Eur J Gastroenterol Hepatol 2016; 28: 479–485. doi:10.1097/MEG.0000000000000552
[24] Estevinho MM, Pinho R, Fernandes C, et al. Diagnostic and therapeutic yields of early capsule endoscopy and device-assisted enteroscopy in the setting of overt GI bleeding: a systematic review with meta-analysis. Gastrointest Endosc 2022; 95: 610-625.e9. doi:10.1016/j.gie.2021.12.009
[25] Fu Z, Xi X, Zhang B, et al. Establishment and Evaluation of a Time Series Model for Predicting the Seasonality of Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding. Int J Gen Med 2021; 14: 2079–2086. doi:10.2147/IJGM.S299208
[26] Jamal MM, Afghani E, Hashemzadeh M. M1541: Trends in the Utilization of Endoscopic Ultrasound. Gastrointest Endosc 2010; 71: AB249
[27] Ahmed M, Kanotra R, Savani GT, et al. Utilization trends in inpatient endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP): a cross-sectional US experience. Endosc Int Open 2017; 5: E261–E271
[28] Baumol WJ. Children of performing arts, the economic dilemma: The climbing costs of health care and education. J Cult Econ 1996; 20: 183–206. doi:10.1007/s10824-005-3206-4
[29] Baumol WJ. Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth: The Anatomy of Urban Crisis. Am Econ Rev 1967; 57: 415–426
[30] El Rahyel A, Vemulapalli KC, Lahr RE, et al. Implications of stable or increasing adenoma detection rate on the need for continuous measurement. Gastrointest Endosc 2022; 95: 948-953.e4. doi:10.1016/j.gie.2021.10.017
[31] Beaulieu D, Barkun AN, Dubé C, et al. Endoscopy reporting standards. Can J Gastroenterol 2013; 27: 286–292. doi:10.1155/2013/145894
[32] Aabakken L, Barkun AN, Cotton PB, et al. Standardized endoscopic reporting. J Gastroenterol Hepatol 2014; 29: 234–240. doi:10.1111/jgh.12489
[33] Bretthauer M, Aabakken L, Dekker E, et al. Requirements and standards facilitating quality improvement for reporting systems in gastrointestinal endoscopy: European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) Position Statement. Endoscopy 2016; 48: 291–294. doi:10.1055/s-0042-100186
[34] Groenen MJM, Kuipers EJ, van Berge Henegouwen GP, et al. Computerisation of endoscopy reports using standard reports and text blocks. Neth J Med 2006; 64: 78–83
[35] Aabakken L, Rembacken B, LeMoine O, et al. Minimal standard terminology for gastrointestinal endoscopy - MST 3.0. Endoscopy 2009; 41: 727–728. doi:10.1055/s-0029-1214949
Related articles

Letter

Blue rubber bleb nevus syndrome

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2023.9913/2023

Letter

Capsule endoscopy diagnosis of gastrointestinal melanoma

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2023.9803/2023

Letter

Calcifying fibrous tumor and pathological analysis

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2023.9739/2023

Letter

Endoscopic observation of a rare duodenal tumor

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2023.9679/2023

Letter

Endoscopic rescue of a fistulizing biliary plastic stent

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2023.9673/2023

Letter

MALT lymphoma of the colon: an endoscopic challenge

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2023.9595/2023

Letter

Sigmoid volvulus management, only endoscopic devolvulation?

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2023.9488/2023

Letter

Isolated Jejunal Crohn's Disease: a challenging diagnosis

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2022.9423/2022

Letter

New technique for the endoscopic removal of long foreign bodies

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2023.9398/2022

Digestive Diseases Image

Whipple’s disease – A typical endoscopic finding of a rare disease

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2022.9338/2022

Digestive Diseases Image

A rare endoscopic pattern in a patient with gastroesophageal reflux disease

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2022.9124/2022

Digestive Diseases Image

Esophageal tuberculosis

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2022.9108/2022

Digestive Diseases Image

Esophagopleural fistula due to empyema necessitans

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2022.9085/2022

Digestive Diseases Image

Pneumatosis intestinalis: a rare endoscopic feature of colonic ischemia

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2022.8980/2022

Letter

Primary intestinal melanoma?

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2022.8944/2022

Letter

Intestinal amyloidosis: a diagnostic challenge

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2022.8934/2022

Letter

Successful gallstone ileus treatment by endoscopy

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2022.8898/2022

Letter

Digestive tract MALT lymphoma, an unusual location

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2022.8800/2022

Digestive Diseases Image

Esophageal epidermoid metaplasia: an unusual condition

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2022.8708/2022

Digestive Diseases Image

Ileal neuroendocrine tumor as an uncommon cause of obscure gastrointestinal bleeding

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2022.8641/2022

Digestive Diseases Image

A case of duodenal-type follicular lymphoma

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2021.8233/2021

Digestive Diseases Image

Endoscopic resection of a duodenal neuroendocrine tumor

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2021.8232/2021

Digestive Diseases Image

Duodenal-type follicular lymphoma: a silent tumor

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2021.8149/2021

Digestive Diseases Image

Primary or idiopathic intestinal pneumatosis: a rare casual endoscopic finding

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2021.8049/2021

Letter

Bochdalek hernia: use of capsule endoscopy

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2021.7760/2020

Digestive Diseases Image

Endoscopic forceps removal for complicated magnetic beads impaction

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2021.7731/2020

Digestive Diseases Image

Esophageal involvement in a patient with pemphigus vulgaris

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2020.7417/2020

Letter

Basic training in gastrointestinal endoscopy: recording images

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2020.7385/2020

Review

Advanced therapy by device-assisted enteroscopy

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2020.6971/2020

Letter

Luetic gastritis: an uncommon cause of gastritis

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2020.6870/2020

Letter

Gastric ulcer due to mucormycosis in a critical patient

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2020.6636/2019

Letter

Primary gastric choriocarcinoma

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2020.6478/2019

Digestive Diseases Image

Jejunal schwannoma detected by video capsule endoscopy

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2020.6474/2019

Digestive Diseases Image

Capsule endoscopy, a useful tool for the diagnosis of a tapeworm infection

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2019.6346/2019

Editorial

Endoscopy units – Statu quo

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2019.6347/2019

Letter

Endoscopically diagnosed systemic mastocytosis

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2019.6246/2019

Digestive Diseases Image

A rare heterotopic gastric mucosa appearing between the muscularis mucosae and submucosa

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2019.6134/2018

Special Article

Quality indicators in gastroscopy. Gastroscopy procedure

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2019.6023/2018

Letter

Endoscopic management of Boerhaave’s syndrome

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2019.6013/2018

Digestive Diseases Image

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the main duct in a patient with pancreas divisum

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2019.5959/2018

Letter

Use of patency capsule in daily practice

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2019.5952/2018

Letter

Symptomatic exfoliative esophagitis induced by dabigatran

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2018.5747/2018

Special Article

The current situation of digestive endoscopy units in the Valencian Community

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2019.5676/2018

Special Article

Endoscopy and sedation: an inseparable binomial for the gastroenterologist

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2018.5585/2018

Digestive Diseases Image

Dysphagia and hematemesis caused by an intramural esophageal dissection

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2018.5471/2018

Letter to the Editor

GETTEMO position statement on bariatric endoscopic techniques as a voluntary medicine

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2017.5144/2017

Digestive Diseases Image

Metastasis of dermatofibrosarcoma diagnosed by capsule endoscopy

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2018.4900/2017

Letter to the Editor

Symptomatic retention of the Agile® patency capsule

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2017.4691/2016

Letter to the Editor

Ball valve syndrome caused by a giant gastric Vanek’s tumor

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2017.4526/2016

Original

Multicenter study on the safety of bariatric endoscopy

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2017.4499/2016

Letter to the Editor

Endoscopic removal of a hashish packet

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2017.4504/2016

Letter to the Editor

Whipple’s disease under the vision of capsule endoscopy

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2016.4362/2016

Letter to the Editor

Asymptomatic bronchial aspiration of capsule endoscope: a significant complication

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2016.4363/2016

Letter to the Editor

Author´s reply: About human taeniasis and Taenia saginata diagnosis by endoscopy

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2016.4339/2016

Letter to the Editor

About human taeniasis and Taenia saginata diagnosis by endoscopy

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2016.4297/2016

Letter to the Editor

Transanal submucosal endoscopic resection (TASER) by TEO system®

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2016.4154/2015

Case Report

Atypical diagnosis diagnosis by endoscopic capsule: Whipple´s disease

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2015.3718/2015

Citation tools
Pinho R, Veloso R, Estevinho M, Rodrigues T, Lobo B, Amorim-Lopes M, et all. Predicting the future: introducing business analytics to endoscopy units. 9094/2022


Download to a citation manager

Download the citation for this article by clicking on one of the following citation managers:

Metrics
This article has received 649 visits.
This article has been downloaded 66 times.

Statistics from Dimensions


Statistics from Plum Analytics

Publication history

Received: 22/07/2022

Accepted: 23/09/2022

Online First: 07/10/2022

Published: 05/05/2023

Article revision time: 52 days

Article Online First time: 77 days

Article editing time: 287 days


Share
This article hasn't been rated yet.
Reader rating:
Valora este artículo:




Asociación Española de Ecografía Digestiva Sociedad Española de Endoscopia Digestiva Sociedad Española de Patología Digestiva
The Spanish Journal of Gastroenterology is the official organ of the Sociedad Española de Patología Digestiva, the Sociedad Española de Endoscopia Digestiva and the Asociación Española de Ecografía Digestiva
Cookie policy Privacy Policy Legal Notice © Copyright 2023 y Creative Commons. The Spanish Journal of Gastroenterology