Year 2020 / Volume 112 / Number 6
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Year 2020 / Volume 112 / Number 6

Original

Comparison of the AIMS65 score with the Glasgow-Blatchford and Rockall scoring systems for the prediction of the risk of in-hospital death among patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

467-473

Xuefeng Lu, Xiaojie Zhang, Hong Chen,

Objective: the aim of this study was to compare the AIMS65, Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) and Rockall score for the prediction of the risk of in-hospital death among patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). Methods: patients with UGIB admitted to the ZhongDa hospital from June 2015 to July 2017 were retrospectively collected. All patients were assessed by the AIMS65, GBS and Rockall score and the main outcomes were in-hospital mortality. Odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence interval (CI) were estimated to assess the association of the three scores with the risk of death using logistic regression models. Subsequently, their risk stratification accuracy were compared. Finally, their predictive power was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Results: of the 284 UGIB patients enrolled in the study, 51 (18.0 %) had variceal bleeding (VUGIB) and 10 patients (3.5 %) died. AIMS65 (OR = 5.14, 95 % CI = 2.48, 10.64), GBS (OR = 1.66, 95 % CI = 1.28, 2.15) and Rockall (OR = 2.72, 95 % CI = 1.76, 4.18) scores were positively associated with death risk among all patients. The AIMS65 score (high-risk group vs low-risk group: 11.9 % vs 0.0 %, p < 0.001) was effective to classify high-risk in-hospital deaths populations. The AIMS65 score was the best approach to predict in-hospital death among all UGIB patients (AUROC: AIMS65 0.955, GBS 0.882, Rockall 0.938), NVUGIB patients (AUROC = 0.969, 95 % CI = 0.937, 0.989) or VUGIB patients (AUROC = 0.885, 95 % CI = 0.765, 0.967). Conclusions: the AIMS65 score is the most convenient UGIB prognostic score to predict in-hospital mortality and may be more suitable for patients with NVUGIB.

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Asociación Española de Ecografía Digestiva Sociedad Española de Endoscopia Digestiva Sociedad Española de Patología Digestiva
The Spanish Journal of Gastroenterology is the official organ of the Sociedad Española de Patología Digestiva, the Sociedad Española de Endoscopia Digestiva and the Asociación Española de Ecografía Digestiva
© 2020 The Spanish Journal of Gastroenterology