Year 2024 / Volume 116 / Number 1
Original
Has the trend in pancreatic cancer mortality in Spain started to slow down?

14-21

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2023.9573/2023

Lucía Cayuela, Aurelio Cayuela Domínguez,

Abstract
Introduction: the aim of this study was to describe the trends of pancreatic cancer mortality by autonomous communities (ACs) and gender in Spain (1980-2021). Methods: an ecological trend study was performed (with aggregated data obtained from the National Institute of Statistics). Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for pancreatic cancer (per 100,000) were estimated by direct standardization, using the European standard population. Trends in ASMR (all ages and truncated 35-64 years) were analyzed by sex in each AC using a joinpoint regression model. The annual percent changes (APC) and average annual percentage of change (AAPC) were computed for trends using the joinpoint regression analysis. Results: in both sexes, ASMRs (all ages) increased significantly (p < 0.05) during the study period (AAPC: 1.5 % in males and 1.8 % in females). The joinpoint analysis identified a turning point in the trends in the late 1980s, which delineates two periods: an initial period of significant increase followed by a period of slowing of the increase (APC: 0.9 % and 1.4 % in males and females respectively; p < 0.05). In both sexes, a significant increase in ASMR (all ages) was observed in all ACs, except in Navarre, where the rates remained stable in males. In males, three ACs (Galicia, Madrid and Navarre) showed a point of inflexion in the time trend around the year 2000 (1999, 2000 and 2001 respectively), when the rates, after a period of significant increase (ACs: 2.6 %, 2.4 %, and 2.4 %, respectively; p < 0.05), stabilized (Galicia and Navarre) or the increase slowed (Madrid). In females, only Madrid showed a point of inflection in 1992, when, after a significant increase, the rates slowed down (1992-2021; APC: 1.5 %; p < 0.05).  Conclusions: the upward trend in pancreatic cancer mortality in some ACs seems to have slowed (in both sexes in Madrid), stabilized (in men in Galicia and Navarre) or turned around (in men aged 30-64 in Navarre).
Lay Summary
The upward trend in pancreatic cancer mortality in some ACs seems to have slowed (in both sexes in Madrid), stabilised (in men in Galicia and Navarre) or turned around (in men aged 30-64 in Navarre).
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Cayuela L, Cayuela Domínguez A. Has the trend in pancreatic cancer mortality in Spain started to slow down?. 9573/2023


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Publication history

Received: 04/03/2023

Accepted: 18/07/2023

Online First: 04/08/2023

Published: 11/01/2024

Article revision time: 130 days

Article Online First time: 153 days

Article editing time: 313 days


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